Draw Simulation

Draw simulation is available in Latest History window and Summary History window. It calculates and collects History sums for a selected set of number combinations and presents them as a histogram table and chart. The histogram then shows what is statistically most likely to happen with History values in the next draw.

Click button  to open Simulation Draws window to select the number combinations to be used as simulated winning numbers and start the draw simulation process.

When the draw simulation is finished, the results are presented in a table in the upper half of the window. Each table row contains the results for a single History Level. The tables columns are:

• Latest - the latest History value for given Level. Use button Select at the top of the window to choose a different section of winning numbers database to be used for History calculations.
• Trend - shows how many simulated draws produced History sum greater than the latest (increase) or lower than the latest sum value (decrease). For example, value increase [61%] means that 61% of simulated draws would produce positive History Difference (sum value greater than the latest sum) if they were actually drawn in the coming draw. Value e.g. decrease [54%] means that majority of simulated draws would produce negative History Difference (sum value lower than the latest sum) if they were actually drawn in the next draw. 
• Median - median History sum/difference. This particular value corresponds to the half of the range between the maximum value of positive deviation (the first „6“ numbers with the smallest deviation) an the maximum value of negative deviation (the last 6 numbers with the greatest deviation) in certain level
• Most Frequent - the History sum/difference that was produced most often during the simulation. Corresponds to blue bar in simulation histogram chart.
• AVG - the average History sum/difference. It means that half of the simulated results are lower than this value and the other half of simulated results are greater than the median value.
• StdDev - standard deviation of History differences produced during the simulation.
• Min - the lowest History sum/difference found in simulation results.
• Max - the highest History sum/difference found in simulation results.
• Range - the total range of History values in a given Level. Max - Min = Range

 Toggle button  to show draw simulation results as differences from the latest draw, toggle button  to show simulation results as absolute sum values.

 Click any column header to sort the table in ascending or descending order.

The lower part of the window is histogram chart showing draw simulation results for selected Level. A section of that chart is automatically transferred to Simulation hint in My Estimates window:

The figure below shows the simulation histogram for Expert Lotto 6/49 Demo lottery generated from all possible combinations:

The most frequent value is +10 which was simulated 371,183 times. Let's assume that occurrence tresholds in History settings window are set to 15% and 10% respectively.

Fifteen percent of 371,183 is approximately 55,677. So the range estimate will include differences that were simulated at least 55,677 times, that is differences greater than -27.

Ten percent of 371,183 is approximately 37,118. So the range estimate will include differences that were simulated at most 37,118 times, that is differences lower than +33.

Pink background in the figure above highlights the section of simulation histogram that is automatically transferred to My Estimates window for occurrence thresholds set to 15% and 10% respectively.

You can refine the hints in My Estimates window by zooming a section of the histogram chart:

1. Estimate the lowest possible History value for the next draw and click it in the chart.
2. Hold down mouse button and move the mouse cursor to the right up to the highest possible History value.
3. The histogram will zoom the selected section of the chart and Simulation hint in My Estimates window will show the new range.

 Blue bar in the histogram chart denotes the most frequent sum or difference from the simulation results.

 Black dotted line in the histogram chart denotes the sum or difference corresponding to the current what-if numbers.

 The whole histogram is projected into History Sum and History Differences charts as a grey gradient bar. Darker color denotes values with higher occurrences, lighter colors denote History values occurring only very seldom in the simulation results.

The status bar at the bottom of the window shows the count of tickets that were used for draw simulation and ticket filter applied on those tickets (if any).

 See also History Level Synchronization.