by Jerzy » Thu Jun 16, 2011 6:45 pm
Padawan,
The occurrence threshold is a parameter based on the proportion of the occurrence of winning difference to the occurrence of the most frequent difference in the level (the blue bar in the simulation histogram). To enter the occurrence threshold, go to Tools --> Options --> History --> Estimates. This parameter applies to all levels. The winning history differences should be able to cross this threshold and the 1st prize ticket should be present in the package after filtering.
To find the right occurrence threshold for your game, you should calculate actual threshold for the past 10 - 20 drawings and keep calculating it for next drawings to get enough data.
Begin with calculating the occurence threshold for the latest draw.
First prepare the list of the latest winning differences, then hide the last draw result in the Winning Numbers --> Edit, and next run the simulation and analyze the histograms.
Calculate the threshold for the latest winning history differences which are located peripherally in the simulation histogram. Do it separately for the negative and positive differences.
No need to calculate anything for the differences located centrally.
For example:
The latest most negative difference was -73 and it was in the level 30. It had the occurrence of 518 and the most frequent difference (the blue one) had the occurrence of 24,785.
518/24785 * 100% = 2.08%. I round it down to 2.00%. It is the passing threshold for the level 30.
The latest most positive difference was 24 and it was in the level 26. It had the occurrence of 12,623 and the most frequent difference had the occurrence of 29,332.
12623/29332 * 100% = 43.03% . I round it down to 43% (the passing threshold for the level 26).
Probably the min occurrence threshold for the latest draw, in my example, will be 2.00% and the max threshold 43.00% , both values applicable to all levels, but we need to confirm it by doing more calculations.
Calculate thresholds separately for negative and positive differences. From the passing thresholds for negative difference select the lowest value. It will be min occurrence threshold for the latest draw. Similarly select the lowest value from the group of positive differences. It will be the max occurrence threshold for the latest draw. Usually the threshold for negative differences is lower than for positive differences, but not always.
With correct occurrence threshold entered centrally for all levels, you also need to enter the range of differences that cross this threshold into each level separately. Open My Estimates window, in the lower part of it in the Simulation [summary] you will see the min and max difference and a range of differences that cross the threshold. Click on the box, which has a small arrow in it, to enter this value to My Estimates and next transfer all entered values to the filter.
This is a very fine method of filtering, more effective than the ordinary method, because all levels are filtered proportionally.